1. BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
I would love The Hurt Locker to win this race, but I’m afraid the Cameron-Bigelow post marital settlement will split awards, with Avatar taking this one and Bigelow winning for directing. Then again, Up in the Air could grab both and let the sleeping dogs lie in the pre-Linda Hamilton Cameron residence. Can Tarantino pull off an upset? I think the precursors dominance of UITA is too strong to ignore.
Winner: UP IN THE AIR.
2. BEST MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
It’s a curious category, with two Meryl Streep vehicles, a rude lad comedy and a musical that’s been unable to live up to great expectations. Many say The Hangover can be the surprise winner here, but honestly, is a film that uses Vegas for a memory loss plot worth it? I still don’t get why noboby points out at (500) Days of Summer. I think that the HFPA is the perfect group to recognise the virtues of the film and give the push it needs to make it into (this year’s enlarged) Oscar final 10 Best Pictute nominees.
Winner: (500) DAYS OF SUMMER
3. BEST DIRECTOR
I’ll vote with my heart. Tarantino is a threat, but they can compensate him with the screenplay.
Winner: KATHRYN BIGELOW
4. BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Excellent, fiercely competitive category. Almodóvar is well-liked among the foreign press, La Nana has been 2009 indie box office surprise of the year and Un prophète has gained universal praise but Haneke has crafted such a masterpiece with his existencial whodunit that it’d take guts to ignore him.
Winner: THE WHITE RIBBON
5. BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE
First of all, what is Nancy Meyers doing here while The White Ribbon is being ignored? I know it’s the Globes, but if they wanted to nominate something like that they should have gone for Nora Ephron, who at least had to read two books before she started to type. I don’t see a picture like Up in the Air winning all the important awards, so I bet Tarantino will take it home.
Winner: QUENTIN TARANTINO (Inglorious Basterds)
6. BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Not much to say here. Up will probably be the secong animated film to receive a Best Picture Oscar nomination after Beauty and the Beast, so it must win the Globe.
7. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
It’s Bridges vs. Clooney. I think Clooney will still win here and the SAG will balance the situation before the final showdown at the Oscars. Is Tobey Maguire aware that he’s been nominated? Nobody else seems to know.
Winner: GEORGE CLOONEY (Up in the Air)
8. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
With Helen Mirren and Emily Blunt in a race of their own for the fifth spot at the Oscars, Meryl Streep safely away in the comedy category and Gabourey Sibide happy enough to be nominated everywhere for her auspicious film debut, this boils down to Sandra Bullock and Carey Mulligan. Mulligan’s buzz started in Sundance and is inevitable starting to die off, while Bullock’s chances increase by the day. She’s now the official favorite, but I’ll go for Mulligan.
Winner: CAREY MULLIGAN (An Education)
9. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY
I’d love Joseph Gordon-Levitt to win, but he probably won’t. I have a feeling that Nine will be the big loser of the night, so I think it’s Damon who will win here and keep the chances of an Oscar nod alive.
Winner: MATT DAMON (The Informant)
10. BEST PEFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
When I first had a look at the nominations and I saw Julia Roberts I thought I’d gotten the wrong year. Duplicity? This year? They love Julia in the Globes. She started off winning for Steel Magnolias 20 years ago, she’s been nominated for almost every comedy she’s been in and she managed a surprise nomination like this year’s for Charlie Wilson’s War. It doesn’t matter, though. This is a lock. Meryl Streep will delight us with another great speech. There’s not even a risk of cancelling herself out. Her turn in Julie & Julia is simply the better one of her two nominated performances.
Winner: MERYL STREEP (Julie & Julia)
11. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
A good bunch of actors, but Waltz’ unforgettable turn as the polyglot, evil colonel Landa is too strong to beat. The film wouldn’t work without such a great performance in that pivotal role and he has the Cannes accolade in his credentials. He will win.
Winner: CHRISTOPHER WALTZ (Inglorious Basterds)
12. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE – MOTION PICTURE
Only one of the girls from Up in the Air could pull off an upset, but I don’t think so. I think Mo’nique’s public unwillingness to campaign in the award season has been the best promotion an actress like her could have come up with.
Winner: MO’NIQUE (Precious)
13. BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
I loved the score in The Informant. It adds to the perfect atmosphere and time recreation and it should win, but I guess many will cross the Up box out of habit. I trust the HFPA’s sense, though.
Winner: MARVIN HAMLISH (The Informant)
14. BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE
They love to honour famous people in this category, so I guess Paul McCartney and specially U2 have a good shot here. I only hope it isn’t Leona Lewis for Avatar‘s I See You, a dull variation on Titanic‘s My Heart Will Go On. The deserved winner would be Ryan Bingham for Crazy Heart, so like in the previous category I’ll take the risk. After all, who cares?
Winner: RYAN BIRGHAM, ‘The weary Kind’ (Crazy Heart)
15. BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Mad Men is the best thing that has happenned to TV since The Sopranos, so unless True Blood’s popularity blocks its way, it should win its third consecutive Globe. By the way, why aren’t Elisabeth Moss and Christina Hendricks nominated in the leading and supporting categories, respectively?
Winner: MAD MEN
16. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
With voters tired of Hugh Laurie, Simon Baker is the new face and thus the one to beat, but I think it’s Jon Hamm who’ll repeat his 2008 victory.
Winner: JON HAMM (Mad Men)
17. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Anna Paquin won last year and that’s a handicap, but True Blood’s second season is universally considered to be better than the first, plus she’s nominated in another category where she cannot win. Julianna Margulies is her biggest threat.
Winner: ANNA PAQUIN (True Blood)
18. BEST TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Freshness is everything in the TV categories, so it’s gonna be Glee.
19. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVSION SERIES – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
I think Baldwin can still make it this year.
Winner: ALEC BALDWIN (30 Rock)
20. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVSION SERIES – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Everybody has missed Carmela so much that I think that’s all it’s gonna take to get Falco a comedy Globe. I’ve watched the first episodes and she’s good enough to pull it off.
Winner: EDIE FALCO (Nurse Jackie)
21. BEST MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
This is a lock.
Winner: GREY GARDENS
22. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Honestly, no clue. I haven’t seen any, but Brendan Gleeson was so sad last year when mate Farrell took the award for In Brugges that I think he’ll be compensated here.
Winner: BRENDAN GLEESON (Into the Storm)
23. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Winner: DREW BARRIMORE (GREY GARDENS)
24. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A SERIES, MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
The category aka “whoever never got nominated somewhere else”. Neil Patrick Harris is cute and funny enough in HIMYM to do it.
Winner: NEIL PATRICK HARRIS (How I Met Your Mother)
25. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A SERIES, MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
It’s been a good year for Lynch, and everybody loves Glee.
Winner: JANE LYNCH (Glee)